lazy_flyer (lazy_flyer) wrote,
lazy_flyer
lazy_flyer

Предсказаний псто...

Не только лишь все знают, что многие люди верят разной масти врожбитам и предсказателям судьбы.
Гороскопы, цыганка "позолоти ручку", колода Таро, хрустальный шар...

Верят и с удовольствием занимаются самообманом.
Вы думаете в беспилотниках иначе? Технократы - люди рациональные и здравомыслящие?
Как бы не так, это всего лишь люди, со всем прелестным людским багажом заблуждений и глупости.
И как везде, на этом рынке тоже существуют свои предсказатели и эксрасенсы с хрустальными шарами.
И как везде предсказатели хорошо зарабатывают на человеческих слабостях.
Критический взгляд на эти предсказания не так давно опубликовала компания Droneanalyst: Diversity and Hype in Commercial Drone Market Forecasts.

Here’s my take on the most popular forecasts. Note that several of these are sold by resellers.

BI Intelligence – has a 32-page report for subscribers (~$400) that forecasts total cumulative drone spending over the next 10 years (2015 to year-end 2024) of $111 billion. It also forecasts that $15 billion of that will be spent on commercial/civilian applications, including R&D costs, software, and hardware. But looking into the numbers it basically recycles AUVSI’s bogus numbers and then ups the Teal Group’s already inflated (and out of touch) forecast.

ABI research – has a research report available to subscribers that says the small UAS market will surpass $8.4 billion by 2018 and by 2019 the commercial sector will dominate the overall small UAS market with revenues exceeding $5.1 billion, roughly five times larger than the prosumer/hobby market, and 2.3 times greater than the military/civil market segment. I respect the work of this firm, but as you can see from the graph in this article they consider prosumer as part of hobby and not commercial as would be relevant. Still, I agree with Dan Kara: “The money to be made is actually in the application space to a large degree.” So why don’t they forecast that as a segment of commercial?

Markets and Markets – sells a 180+ page report on the commercial drones market by type, technology, application, and geography for $4,560. They expect the global market for small UAS to reach $1.9 billion by the end of 2020. They state the obvious and say the increase in civil and military applications remains the driving factor for the global small UAV market. They go on to say that among all the key applications (law enforcement, energy and power, manufacturing, infrastructure, media and entertainment, agriculture, and scientific research) law enforcement will hold the largest market share at ~25%. My research says the opposite it true – at least in the U.S. That’s because adoption by local and state police agencies here already is and will continue to be fraught with controversy over privacy and Fourth Amendment rights.

Idate Research – sells a $2,300 54 page report with a forecast covering 2014 to 2020 for commercial and consumer drones. They predict that once a suitable regulatory framework is introduced and no significant disruption takes place, nearly 170,000 commercial drones will be operating across the globe by the end of 2020, alongside about 12 million hobby drones. It’s hard to tell how they arrive at these numbers since their methodology is primarily qualitative, e.g., obtained from one-on-one interviews and not quantitative or established by cross-referencing public sources and external databases.

Lux Research – has a report available to subscribers that says the commercial UAV market will grow to $1.7 billion by 2025 but will be held back by regulations. It also says that agriculture tops applications and will generate $350 million in revenues in 2025, led by uses in precision agriculture. It envisions utilities to be the second biggest segment at $269 million, and oil and gas third at $247 million. Right off the bat you can discount their numbers since it’s been established over and over that agriculture will not lead the market. Clearly they have not researched thoroughly this or other markets like GIS. Also, their overall number is quite low. DJI is projected to sell above $1 billion in consumer drones in 2015. Given the market tendency for these to be used commercially you can see their 2025 number is not rational.


Главное - верить в светлое будущее. И сразу найдутся те, кто это светлое будущее предскажет. За деньги, конечно же. Ведь он тоже верит в светлое будущее...
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