А ещё есть народная мудрость - свято место пусто не бывает (с).
Кому то казалось, что оружейный рынок не работает по таким принципам. Пакты, союзники и вот это всё. Но как оказалось этот кто то очень сильно заблуждается...
Opinion: How Anti-Proliferation Rules Are Helping China, Hurting U.S.
For a nonbinding agreement, the 30-year-old Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) has worked remarkably well. By and large, its 35 signatories—including the U.S., UK, France, Russia, India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey—have abided by the rules, which were designed to prevent the proliferation of long-range missiles and other unmanned weapons that can be used for nuclear, chemical or biological attacks.
But while the MTCR has helped make the world safer, American developers of medium-altitude, long-endurance unmanned systems make a credible case that its restrictions have blocked them from exporting to many nations friendly to the U.S. That has opened the door for China to break into those markets with its copycat drones—and develop deep relationships that extend well beyond the supply of unmanned systems.
With the exception of NATO members and Japan, South Korea and Australia, it is nearly impossible to win U.S. government approval to sell medium-size, unmanned aircraft that can carry weapons, say top executives at California-based General Atomics Aeronautical Systems (GA-ASI). The reason: under MTCR’s decades-old rules, unmanned systems such as General Atomics’ MQ-9B (pictured) are essentially classified as cruise missiles.
GA-ASI CEO Linden P. Blue argues that by ceding those markets to China, the U.S. is speeding up the creation of a formidable competitor. “They are going to learn how to provision spare parts, what kind of maintenance is really necessary, how to integrate UAVs into the local military’s other assets,” he says. “And after a few years, they will become an inexorable part of those countries’ militaries.”
Douglas Barrie, a senior defense specialist at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, says Chinese Wing Loong, CH-3 and CH-4 drones have been acquired by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, Myanmar, Pakistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. “The Chinese saw a market opportunity and they’ve pushed in there,” Barrie says. “It’s going to be difficult to get these countries back into the Western fold.”
While the Obama administration rolled out export control reforms two years ago, it also formalized a policy that strictly regulates UAS exports outside of NATO. General Atomics is hopeful that President Donald Trump’s administration and a Republican-led Congress will be more receptive to its concerns. On Aug. 14, GA-ASI President Dave Alexander was one of the executives at Trump’s side when he publicly ordered a review of how China is gaining access to U.S. industry secrets and intellectual property.
General Atomics is hardly alone in its concerns. The U.S. government’s strict interpretation of the MTCR rules is a “major impediment” across the unmanned aircraft industry, says Loren Thompson, a military analyst at the Lexington Institute. “I think there is a high likelihood that if the Trump administration can get fully staffed, they will change the rules,” he says. “There is no doubt the administration would be willing to sell drones to many other countries.”
But how? While U.S. regulators could be more liberal interpreting MTCR rules, such a move would not come without risk. “When you open the stable door for UAVs, you green-flag a whole bunch of other technologies you might not want to see sold, such as long-range cruise missiles,” warns Barrie. “If Trump ignored MTCR, the risk is other countries would turn around and do the same thing, possibly with more capable systems.”
The debate is likely to continue as drones become more sophisticated. Manufacturers such as General Atomics, Northrop Grumman, Textron Systems and AeroVironment are advancing into areas such as flying in contested airspace, collaborative swarming, more autonomous operations and incorporating high-power lasers to shoot down ballistic missiles in their boost phase. But there also is ample evidence that the unmanned technologies of other nations are progressing rapidly.
It is only a matter of time before more capable Chinese systems are on the market. Unless there is a concerted effort to redefine the well-meaning construct of the MTCR, the U.S. faces the thin edge of the wedge when it comes to losing both business and leverage in regions that are key to the nation’s security and its geopolitical influence. Getting 35 signatories to a gentleman’s agreement to acquiesce to reforms will be a cumbersome task. But the time to start moving has long since passed.
Вкратце мораль сей басни проста: сначала мы ограничиваем продажу БЛА в разные "плохие" страны. А потом начинаем плакать, что эти страны покупают БЛА у Китая. Потому как партнёры по NATO совсем не готовы вываливать горы баблища за тащемта ненужные им самолётики. Ну вот где такая Дания к примеру будет использовать MQ-9B? Гонять русские траулеры в Северном море? Или перехватывать Ту-95, нарушающие воздушное пространство?
Можно конечно рассуждать о невероятном техническом превосходстве американских БЛА над китайскими. Но только рассуждать, потому что телефончик Xiaomi или Huawei в общем и целом совсем не хуже Apple. А уж точно не дороже. И пожалуйста, не говорите мне о невероятной сложности БЛА - страна, которая умеет строить самолёты ( а Китай - умеет ) производство беспилотников освоит с лёгкостью. Вопрос только в количестве бабла, закачанного в эту отрасль. И умении правильно мотивировать исполнителя.
Но самое печальное вот где.
“It’s going to be difficult to get these countries back into the Western fold.”
Поезд ушёл вместе с вокзалом. Свято место на рынке не будет пусто.